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03/11/2010 - Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 15th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers are set to take on the LSU Tigers in the first round of the 2010 SEC Tournament.
The winner of this contest will move on to face Ole Miss, the West Division's second seed, in Friday's quarterfinal round.
LSU, 11-19 overall, is the sixth seed from the West Division, and it captured its lone SEC crown back in 1980. The Tigers finished 2-14 versus league foes during the regular season, but the team did close out the campaign with a victory and may enter this tournament with some confidence.
The Vols have won the SEC Tournament four times, but it has been 31 years since their last title. Last season, Tennessee reached the title game, only to fall to Mississippi State by a 64-61 final. The 2009-10 Vols are 23-7 overall, and they closed the regular season with three consecutive wins.
Tennessee and LSU played just once during the regular season, and the Vols escaped Baton Rouge with a five-point win. In regard to the all-time series, Tennessee owns a 57-42 advantage.
The Tigers lack depth and are the lowest-scoring team in the SEC (61.9 ppg) despite boasting two of the league's top 13 scorers, including Tasmin Mitchell (17.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg). Bo Spencer provides 14.9 ppg, and he leads the team with 79 assists. Unfortunately, Spencer is shooting a woeful 33.9 percent from the field. Storm Warren is the third and final double-digit scorer on the roster with 11.6 ppg, and he is grabbing 7.2 rpg to complement a team-high 43 blocks. Unfortunately, no other player on the team is netting more than 4.6 ppg, so the trio mentioned is responsible for almost all of the Tigers' 61.9 ppg. LSU managed to beat Georgia in the regular-season finale despite shooting just 31 percent from the floor.
Tennessee owns the second-best scoring margin in the SEC (+9.8 ppg), surprising considering the fact that it doesn't possess a single player ranked in the top 20 in the league in scoring. Scotty Hopson paces the squad with 13.1 ppg, and Wayne Chism checks in with 12.4 ppg and 6.8 rpg. Chism has also blocked 44 shots, but he has been inconsistent this season, choosing to play a role rather than use his unique skill set to dominate games. The Vols are the top team in the conference when it comes to defending the three-point shot. They are limiting opponents to 65.2 ppg while generating 75.0 ppg at the offensive end. In a 16-point victory over Mississippi State to close out the regular season, the Vols shot 50 percent from the floor, had five double-digit scorers and held the Bulldogs to 33.9 percent shooting.
<< Miners open C-USA Tournament play against Knights
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Winners of 14th straight games, the top-seeded
and 25th-ranked Texas El Paso Miners set their sites on a C-USA Tournament
championship, starting with tonight's quarterfinal-round matchup against the
ninth-seeded UCF
<< TCU seeks upset of BYU in Mountain West quarterfinals
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A rematch of the regular-season finale has
14th-ranked and second-seeded BYU taking on the seventh-seeded TCU Horned
Frogs in the quarterfinals of the 2010 Mountain West Conference Tournament
tonight at the Thom
<< Falcons face tall task in Mountain West Tourney tilt with Lobos
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Less than 24 hours after picking up just
their second win all-time in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, the Air
Force Falcons are back on the hardwood of the Thomas & Mack Center in Las
Vegas as they
<< No. 1 Kansas begins Big 12 Tournament play against Texas Tech
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-ranked Kansas Jayhawks are the top
seed in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, and they are slated to do battle
with the ninth-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders this afternoon in the
quarterfinal round.
Mountaineers and Bearcats collide in quarterfinal action >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-seeded and seventh-ranked West
Virginia Mountaineers begin their march towards a Big East Tournament title
tonight, as they face off against the 11th-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats in the
quarterfinals at M
Orange and Hoyas clash in Big East quarterfinals >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-ranked and top-seeded Syracuse
Orange make their much anticipated debut in the Big East Tournament today, as
they lock up with the 22nd-ranked and eighth-seeded Georgetown Hoyas in the
quarterfinals at
Wildcats and Golden Eagles square off in Big East Tourney >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams that have a history of playing close
games meet in the quarterfinal round of the Big East Tournament today, as the
fifth-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles battle the fourth-seeded and 10th-ranked
Villanova
Surging Irish set sights on Panthers in tournament play >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a surprising regular-season showing, the
16th-ranked and second-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers now begin their run in the
Big East Tournament tonight against the seventh-seeded Notre Dame Fighting
Irish in the
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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