Playoff Position on the Line for Pack, Vikes

Football Betting Lines

12/21/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will be fighting for their playoff lives on Thursday night, when the two longtime division rivals square off at Lambeau Field.

Both the Packers and Vikings begin Week 16 at 6-8, which puts them just a game back of the 7-7 Giants and Falcons for the NFC's second Wild Card spot. The clubs are part of a five-team pack that stands at 6-8, but superior conference marks place the duo at the forefront of that group. Minnesota has a 6-4 record against NFC foes heading into Thursday night, while the Packers are 5-5 within the conference.

The franchises have arrived at their current 6-8 records by far different means.

Green Bay started the year 1-4, and has placed itself back in the postseason discussion during a 5-4 stretch that included last Sunday's 17-9 win over the Lions. The Packers, who will finish their season at NFC North champion Chicago next week, have a chance to become just the second team in NFL history to reach the playoffs despite never being above .500 during the course of the year, joining the 1990 New Orleans Saints in that exclusive category.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has endured an ugly 2-6 stretch since opening the year at a healthy 4-2. The Vikings were 26-13 home losers to the Jets last week, a game in which starting quarterback Brad Johnson was pulled late for the third time this season. Rookie Tarvaris Jackson replaced Johnson late in the going, and will receive his first NFL start in Green Bay on Thursday night.

Brad Childress' team will finish its regular season schedule at home against the St. Louis Rams next Sunday.

The Vikings, who have won in three of their last four trips to Lambeau Field, will be trying to avenge a 23-17 home loss to Green Bay on Nov. 12th.

SERIES HISTORY

Green Bay leads the all-time regular season series with Minnesota, which dates back to the 1961 season, 45-44-1. The Packers broke a deadlock in the series at the Metrodome in Week 10, when they scored the aforementioned 23-17 victory. The Vikings swept last year's home-and-home, taking a 23-20 home decision in Week 7 as well as a 20-17 affair at Lambeau Field in Week 11. The Packers swept the 2004 regular season series with their longtime division rival, winning by identical scores of 34-31 in Weeks 10 and 16.

The teams' only postseason meeting to date was the Vikings' 31-17 upset of the Packers at Lambeau Field in a 2004 NFC Wild Card game.

The Packers' Mike McCarthy has a 1-0 edge in his personal series against both the Vikings and fellow first-year head coach Childress.

VIKINGS OFFENSE VS. PACKERS DEFENSE

Jackson won't have far to go to better the work of Johnson (2738 passing yards, 9 TD, 15 INT), who was among the NFL's least productive quarterbacks through 15 weeks. Johnson's nine touchdown passes are tied for 28th in the league and last among players than have made 12 or more starts this season, while the veteran's 71.9 passer rating ranks 26th. Before getting pulled against the Jets, Johnson was 10-of-17 for just 96 yards, with a 30-yard touchdown pass to Travis Taylor early in the first quarter accounting for his only scoring drive of the day. Taylor (51 receptions, 2 TD), who is listed as questionable with an ankle injury for Thursday, had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in what was arguably the best game of his two-year Vikings career. Former first-round draft pick Troy Williamson (36 receptions) also had a decent day, hauling in six passes for 74 yards in a losing effort. Jackson, who completed 14-of-23 passes for 177 yards with a touchdown and an interception, threw his first career TD pass to running back Mewelde Moore (41 receptions, 1 TD) in the first quarter. Tight end Jermaine Wiggins (44 receptions, 1 TD), who went without a catch against Green Bay in Week 10, comes off a three-reception day against the Jets. The Vikings offensive line has allowed 36 sacks on the year.

Pressure was a key to the Packers' Week 10 victory over the Vikings, and Green Bay figures to bring the heat on Jackson for 60 minutes on Thursday. The Pack had four sacks in the last meeting with the Vikes, with starting linebackers A.J. Hawk (3.5 sacks, 1 INT), Nick Barnett (2 sacks, 2 INT), and Brady Poppinga (1 sack, 1 INT) combining on three of those. McCarthy's team had six sacks of the Lions' Jon Kitna last Sunday, including three by tackle Cullen Jenkins (6.5 sacks) and two for top pass rusher Aaron Kampman (76 tackles, 12.5 sacks). Kampman is just one sack behind NFL leader Aaron Schobel as Week 16 begins. Starting Green Bay corners Charles Woodson (53 tackles, 6 INT, 1 sack) and Al Harris (40 tackles, 3 INT) both had interceptions of Kitna, with Woodson's pick ranking as his third in four weeks. Elsewhere in the secondary, safeties Nick Collins (68 tackles, 1 INT) and Marquand Manuel (78 tackles, 1 INT) combined for six stops.

Minnesota running back Chester Taylor (1136 rushing yards, 5 TD, 38 receptions) returned to the lineup following a one-week absence last Sunday, but his 11-carry, 38-yard effort suggests that perhaps his sore ribs should have been given another week to heal. The outing marked the third time this year that Taylor had been held to fewer than 40 yards in a contest. Backup Artose Pinner (178 rushing yards, 3 TD), who had recorded a career-high 125 yards and three touchdowns against the Lions one week prior, was limited to one carry for four yards versus the Jets. Third-down man Moore (121 rushing yards) had the greatest impact of the team's running backs, catching five passes for 53 yards and scoring his first touchdown of the season. Taylor rushed 20 times for 75 yards against the Packers in Week 10, and Moore had 57 yards worth of catches.

One week after scarcely being tested by the Detroit running game, Green Bay's run-stopping unit will have to re-focus against Chester Taylor and what remains a strong run-blocking Minnesota front. The Lions rushed just 12 times against the Packers, amassing 24 yards. Jenkins (26 tackle) and fellow tackle Corey Williams (30 tackles, 3 sacks), who combined for seven tackles and four sacks last Sunday, will be looking to provide a presence in the trenches. Linebackers Barnett (95 tackles), Hawk (109 tackles), and Poppinga (55 tackles) will be seeking to make some plays behind them. Barnett posted a game-high 12 stops against the Lions last week, while Hawk was credited with 11 tackles against Minnesota in Week 10.

PACKERS OFFENSE VS. VIKINGS DEFENSE

Packers quarterback Brett Favre (3315 passing yard, 17 TD, 15 INT) didn't get any closer to Dan Marino's career NFL passing TDs record in last week's win over the Lions, though the future Hall-of-Famer was able to secure win number 155 as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Favre was 20-of-37 for 174 yards with three interceptions in the victory, and his 413 TD strikes are still seven back of Marino's 420. As usual, wideout Donald Driver (80 receptions, 7 TD) was Green Bay's top target, catching seven passes for 70 yards in the game. No. 2 receiver Greg Jennings (44 receptions, 3 TD) was quiet with one reception for five yards, but newly-acquired third wideout Carlyle Holiday (4 receptions) made an impact with three receptions for 36 yards. Favre's 347- yard effort against the Vikings in Week 10 represents his highest passing total since 2004, and Driver's 191 receiving yards in that game established a career-best. The Packers have allowed 21 sacks on the year, including one last Sunday.

The Vikings will have to be much better against Favre than they were against Chad Pennington, who carved Minnesota up for a career-high 339 yards on 29- of-39 passing with a touchdown and a pair of turnovers. Jets wideout Laveranues Coles burned the Vikings' Cover-2 scheme for 12 catches, 144 yards, and a touchdown. Cornerbacks Antoine Winfield (83 tackles, 4 INT) and Cedric Griffin (41 tackles, 2 INT) will be locked on Driver and Jennings this week, with safeties Dwight Smith (64 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) and Darren Sharper (57 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) lending support. Each member of Minnesota's starting secondary had posted an interception in the two-game span that preceded last week's loss. The Vikings' pass rush has been non-existent for most of the year, with starting ends Kenechi Udeze (24 tackles) and Darrion Scott (41 tackles, 5.5 sacks) both struggling to provide pressure.

The Packers received a solid contribution from their rushing tandem of Ahman Green (946 rushing yards, 38 receptions, 6 TD) and Vernand Morency (380 rushing yards, 2 TD, 16 receptions) in last week's win over Detroit, and will be seeking more production from the ground game this week. Green carried 22 times for 79 yards to draw ever-closer to the 1,000-yard plateau, also catching a game-high-tying seven passes totaling 44 yards. Morency, meanwhile, scored the contest's only two touchdowns, going in from distances of 14 and 21 yards and finishing the day with 54 yards to show for his nine rushes. Green was held to 55 yards on 22 totes against Minnesota last month, and has gone over 100 yards in just three of 12 career meetings against the Vikes. Morency was inactive in the first Minnesota game.

Though the Vikings' season doesn't figure to end up as a particularly memorable one, Minnesota will likely etch its name in the NFL record book nonetheless. The Vikings have allowed just 771 rushing yards all year, an average of 55.1 per game, and would have to surrender a total of 200 ground yards over their final two contests to avoid breaking the 16-game record of 970, established by the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. No opposing player has amassed more than 78 ground yards against Minnesota, a figure that Buffalo's Willis McGahee managed on 28 carries back in Week 4. Defensive tackles Pat Williams (38 tackles, 1 sack) and Kevin Williams (29 tackles, 5 sacks) have been at the heart of the stifling scheme, with linebackers E.J. Henderson (96 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT), Napoleon Harris (48 tackles, 3 INT, 2.5 sacks), and Ben Leber (36 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) making plays behind them. Pat Williams had five tackles against the Jets, Henderson posted a game-high 13 tackles, and Harris notched a sack, a forced fumble, and an interception off of Chad Pennington.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The "these teams are heading in different directions" line of thinking is problematic in the NFL, where clubs seemingly alter or reverse their course on a week-to-week basis. Another theory that would seem to favor Green Bay, in regard to their advantage at storied Lambeau Field, also fails to hold much weight, since the Pack is 2-5 in their home building this year. What does make sense is to put your confidence in Brett Favre when he faces a team that a) doesn't rush the passer well b) has given up huge passing days to more than one quarterback this season and c) lacks the offensive punch to consistently answer any of Green Bay's potential big plays. The Packers aren't going to run away and hide against a Vikings team that has a slight talent advantage to Green Bay, but they'll do enough to give themselves a chance heading into Week 17.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Packers 21, Vikings 17