Blind Luck tops Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra in La Troienne

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/27/2010 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fantasy Stakes winner Blind Luck has been made the 6-5 morning-line favorite for Friday's $500,000 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs. The race for three-year-old fillies has attracted a full field of 14.

The 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks will share the program with the $400,000 La Troienne which features 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Rachel won last year's Oaks by better than 20-lengths.

Blind Luck, winner of six of nine career starts, will break from post five with Rafael Bejarano returning in the saddle. Co-owned by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, the chestnut filly is the lone entrant listed at odds of less than 8-1.

She won the Fantasy at Oaklawn Park last month as the 1-2 favorite and has been favored in each of her last three starts. In February Blind Luck won the Las Virgenes at Santa Anita as the 1-5 favorite, but failed at 1-2 to Crisp in the Santa Anita Oaks in March when she finished third.

Blind Luck has earned more than $1 million in her career, having won last year's Oak Leaf and Hollywood Starlet. She was third to She Be Wild in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and was runner-up to She Be Wild in the Eclipse Award voting for 2009 champion two-year-old filly.

Crisp, along with Tidal Pool and Amen Hallelujah, is 8-1 in the program. Trained by John Sadler, the filly will be ridden by Joel Rosario from post seven.

Crisp won the Santa Anita Oaks after beginning 2010 with a win in the Santa Ysabel and a fourth in the Las Virgenes. The Oaks will be her first start outside of California for owner Michael Talla.

In her five career starts Crisp has three wins for $252,120.

Here is the complete field for the 136th Kentucky Oaks in post position order: It's Tea Time, Alan Garcia, 15-1; Jody Slew, Miguel Mena, 30-1; Quiet Temper, Robby Albarado, 10-1; Age of Humor, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1; Blind Luck, Rafael Bejarano, 6-5; Beautician, Alex Solis, 15-1; Crisp, Joel Rosario, 8-1; Tidal Pool, Calvin Borel, 8-1; Bella Diamante, Mike Smith, 30-1; Champagne d'Oro, Martin Garcia, 30-1; Evening Jewel, Kent Desormeaux, 10-1; Ailalea, John Velazquez, 15-1; Amen Hallelujah, Julien Leparoux, 8-1 and Joanie's Catch, Paco Lopez, 30-1.

Rachel Alexandra makes her second start of the year in the $400,000 La Troienne. The four-year-old filly was second at the Fair Grounds to Zardana in the New Orleans Ladies.

The two ladies meet again on Friday with four other thoroughbreds also entered in the 1 1/16-mile race.

Owned by Stonestreet Stable and Hal McCormick, Rachel Alexandra will break from post four with regular rider Calvin Borel in the saddle.

"She's happy at Churchill," co-owner Jess Jackson said. "Lexington is her home, but Churchill is her favorite track and she's surely giving us every sign of being ready to run. She's going to need another race before she really defines herself the way she did early last year, but I think she's 85 percent to 90, maybe 95, right now."

Rachel Alexandra, trained by Steve Asmussen, has won 11 of 15 career starts with earnings of $2,988,354. She was undefeated in eight starts in 2009, including wins in the Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell and Woodward.

A stablemate of champion mare Zenyatta, Zardana will be ridden by David Flores from post three. Trained by John Shirreffs, who also has Zenyatta, Zardana is owned by Arnold Zetcher.

The six-year-old mare has won eight of 19 career starts for $428,421. Last year she won Bayakoa Handicap at Hollywood Park. Friday will be her first ever race at Churchill Downs.

Also entered in the La Troienne are Be Fair, Morena, Unrivaled Belle and Distinctive Dixie.

The Kentucky Oaks has a post-time of 5:45 p.m. (et) and the La Troienne is scheduled for 1:26 p.m. (et).

The forecast for Friday calls for partly cloudy skies with a 20 percent chance of rain and a post-time temperature near 80. There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms Saturday with temperatures around 75.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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